The research unit of Cabalistic Crypto predicts the Lightning Network volition get parabolic as adoption of the Bitcoin (BTC) layer-2 payment protocol ramps up over the decade.

Cabalistic Research published the "State of Lightning" report on Tuesday and analyzed the Lightning Network in terms of current chapters, wallet payment volume, the growing rate of adoption, and the switch from online services to everyday usage.

The study provides ambitious estimates for the futurity of the Lighting Network, such as 90% of Salvadorans over the historic period of 15 having admission to Lightning payments by 2026, and 50 million Lightning users, representing $17 billion in annualized payments, for things like remittances and household expenditure by 2030.

Arcane sees gaming and streaming video and audio equally a major use instance for Lightning, with streaming companies such as Spotify or Netflix able to utilize the network for micro-transactions to offer pay-per-minute, or per-second, streaming services, representing an "enormous" run a risk to onboard new Lightning users.

It forecasts 700 million users in these categories by 2030. Using an guess of one hour per day on these services, and 25% of the time spent on those with Lightning payments, Arcane assumes in that location will be one micro-transaction per second:

"Our judge and so equals no less than 364 trillion Lightning transactions per yr," the report says.

The research was conducted in collaboration with Bitcoin payments company OpenNode and highlights how the usage of the Lightning Network has sharply increased since late final year. El salvador'due south adoption of Bitcoin on Sept. 7 propelled the network e'er further:

"In September 2022 growth went parabolic. This was driven mainly by the introduction of Bitcoin as legal tender in Republic of el salvador."

The report as well highlights the significance of peer-to-peer crypto substitution Paxful enabling Lighting payments to its user base of vii million last month, as well as Twitter's integration with the network by launching a BTC tipping service for its 186 million users.

Current capacity

Since Lighting went alive on Bitcoin nearly iii years ago, the network has grown to hold a capacity of almost 3,000 BTC, with 17,000 nodes operating on the network and 73,700 unique channels.

"As of writing, the public Bitcoin chapters on Lightning equals more than $120 million, with users beyond the world finding value in the option to conduct near-instant minor payments at very negligible fees," the report reads.

Only while publicly available metrics such every bit total aqueduct capacity show rapid growth in adoption, wallet payment volumes have far outperformed that metric since August.

"We have focused on mainstream usage through wallet providers, equally we believe this is the all-time measuring stick of adoption. Therefore, the estimated numbers do non comprise the activity from developers, aqueduct rebalancing, most b2b transactions, etc.," the report reads.

According to Cabalistic, wallet payment book has increased past 20% month-over-month since August, which far exceeds the monthly growth rate of 10% from the metric of channel capacity.

"In September, the discrepancy widened farther, with payment volume almost doubling compared to a 26% increase in public channel chapters," the report reads.

Payment volume. Source: Arcane Research

El Salvador and other countries

Arcane estimates that close to 90% of the population from El salvador 15 years or older will take gained access to Lightning payments past 2026.

The estimate relies on a range of central assumptions such as a fifteen% yearly growth rate of internet adoption previously seen in 2022 and 2022, forth with President Nayib Bukele's figure of two.1 million Chivo wallet users from September existence correct.

Related: Bitcoin Lightning nodes and channels hitting record highs

The study predicts that if other countries with "poor cyberbanking access" can follow the suit of El Salvador, there could be 50 million Lightning users who would represent $17 billion in annualized payment volume on the network by 2030.

Potential adoption growth in Republic of el salvador. Source: Arcane Research